Paradigm Shifts and the Future of Craft Beer

One of the most perplexing questions in the craft beer world today has to do with where flavors are headed. This is an ongoing discussion that is to some extent driven by the nearly complete breakdown of style guidelines. There are no more rules. The floodgates have opened.

What this means in practical terms is we see countless cases of styles merging with or borrowing from other styles to create something new. Anything goes. The mindset produces Belgian IPAs, sour and wild IPAs, barrel-aged avocado stouts and so on. Some of these beers can certainly be classified as "extreme," although that term is not universally accepted within the industry.

To me, an extreme beer is one that leans heavily on one or more dramatic flavor profiles. Super hoppy, wildly sour, aggressively fruity, overly boozy or combinations of these fall into what I consider to be extreme beers. They are very far removed from the style guidelines of yesteryear.

Part of what drives the demand for extreme beers is boredom with traditional styles, particularly among younger drinkers. It's instructive to note that we've been drinking traditional craft styles for well over a generation now. Many folks are ready to move on to something a little more stimulating. They actively seek alternative flavors and makeshift styles that zing their taste buds. Tradition means next to nothing.

By the way, beer isn't the only thing wrapped up in this movement. We're seeing it with food, coffee and drinks of all kinds. Many established standards are passe. Across the board, we're seeing a cross-section of folks who are bored with the status quo and actively chasing new flavors.

Plenty of brewers are perfectly happy to serve these evolving tastes. Just as fans have become bored with traditional styles, so have many brewers. They love the chance to experiment with provocative ingredients and techniques. Innovation is fun. Creating unique brews has become a sort of competition to see who can create the wackiest beers.

There's another important factor at work here. Very few brewers are opting out of the extreme craze. Full Sail, as noted in Monday's post, officially refuses to chase trendy brews. They aren't alone, but they are in the minority. I honestly suspect fear of not joining the movement drives many. Brewers simply do not want to appear to be out of touch with current trends.

The question remains: Where is this headed? Many assume the trend toward wackier and more extreme flavors and combinations of styles and flavors is an endless continuum. I think that's a sketchy argument, but I realize everyone needs and is entitled to an opinion.

Historical perspective may provide the most instructive context in which to view current trends. In particular, everyone needs to understand the craft beer movement evolved out of a paradigm shift in tastes embraced initially by the baby boom generation, which sought higher quality foods and drinks with richer flavors.

It's important to note that shift was largely a rejection of the tastes of the prior generation. Baby boomers grew up on a diet dominated by light, flavorless, prepackaged foods and drinks. That was the preference of their parents, itself a rejection of the tastes of a prior generation. Baby boomers came to want something different, something better. Craft beer became part of that.

Generational shifts in taste are not new. Just as baby boomers rejected earlier tastes, younger Americans today are rejecting the tastes and preferences of their forebears in a number of ways, one of which is beer. So we see the abandonment of traditional styles in favor of beers that are effectively experimental and very often extreme. It makes some sense.

At some point, there will be another paradigm shift in tastes, a rejection of the existing norm. When it will happen and what the shift will look like we do not know. But it will happen, sure as the sun will rise and set tomorrow. Because history, almost everyone knows, is not bunk.

Reflections, Recollections, Predictions

The beer year that was has been a popular topic the last few days. Media outlets and blogs get a kick out of cataloging each passing year. I suppose it's okay to pile on.

Highlights
The highlight of my 2013 beer year was publication of Portland Beer, which appeared in September. The book explores Portland's beer history and has done reasonably well. By that, I mean hundreds of copies sold...and not just in Portland. I suspect a thousand more copies will sell in the next year or so. My hope is they will also be read (see below).

Having a book out there means I get a lot of interesting questions. Such as, "What's your favorite beer?" The honest answer is I don't have one for this or any year. My favorite beer depends on the time of year and my mood. Fred Eckhardt has said his favorite beer is often the one in front of him...or his next free one. I can relate to that.

"Well, if you don't have a favorite beer, what's your favorite brewery?" they ask. Again, I have no set answer. There are so many great breweries within mere miles of my house that my favorite one often depends on my state of mind. Some places I like to visit while biking in the summer. Others I prefer to visit during the winter. Next question.

Brewery trends
Despite the continuing rash of new brewery openings across the country (the Brewers Association says 500 opened this year), things were relatively quiet in Portland. Breakside opened a production facility and taproom in Milwaukie and Ecliptic opened in Northeast Portland. There were expansion projects at The Commons and Migration. But it was generally a quiet year on the brewery front.

What does that mean? After the dramatic expansion that occurred from 2009 to 2012 (40 percent of our current breweries opened during that time), it was logical that things would slow down. Have we reached a saturation point? I honestly think there's plenty of room for brewpubs that have small breweries and decent food in underserved areas. I think there is less room for production breweries because retail shelf space is limited and the competition for it will eventually get tight. We'll see.

By the way, if I were handing out an award for Portland's best brewery of 2013, it would go to Breakside. Some of their beers I really don't like and I don't care that they produced 100 beers for the year. But I'm really impressed with the creative specialty beers they've developed to go with terrific standards (like IPA and Pils) you can buy in almost any grocery store for a pittance. I love many of our local breweries, but Breakside has impressed me more than anyone else this year.

The Taproom Blitz
It's difficult to know how many taprooms and growler fill stations opened around town in 2013. Two of my favorites are the Imperial Bottleshop and Taproom on Division and Tin Bucket on North Williams. These places feature great beer choices and staffs that love to talk about beer. Another thing they have in common is lousy parking situations. But never mind.

While brewery growth may be slowing down, I suspect many more taprooms will be opening. Why? Because taprooms fit in almost perfectly with a beer culture that increasingly demands extensive choices and specialty beers. Breweries typically offer a short list of their own beers. Taprooms often offer 30 or more beers from numerous breweries. They fit well with the promiscuous, portfolio-driven craft beer crowd of the moment.

The Social Media Trap
It's no secret that social media has largely taken over for blogs as sources of beer information. A lot of people want snippets of information and aren't interested in reading lengthy blog posts or articles in media for more extensive information. Context and detail isn't worth much these days, it seems. Reading is becoming a lost art.

If you want to know why, pull out your smartphone. Seriously. The fact is, attention spans have been in decline for many years; the advent and proliferation of the smartphone has blown them up. Why? Because the smartphone is a terrific platform for sharing brief snippets of information, but a lousy one for sharing detailed content.

There's every reason to believe the smartphone and tablet computer are helping drive the impending collapse of media as we have known it for 100 years. Newspapers are firing or downsizing reporters, not hiring them. TV and radio stations are doing the same thing. Investigative reporting? What's that? Content is increasingly light, fluffy and tailored to the minimal attention span. There's a substantial risk in that approach, which I'll leave alone for now.

This social media trend will likely accelerate in 2014. More and more folks are going to be getting their guidance from Twitter, Facebook, etc. Nonetheless, I do believe there's a place for informed, relevant blog content. As the mainstream media falls apart, blogs will take up some of the slack. I'm not talking about blogs that are nothing more than industry shills..and there are lots of them. I'm talking about objective blogs with original content.

The Risks
The indicators of volume and dollar growth suggest the craft beer industry is in pretty good shape and will be for the foreseeable future. Consumer tastes may eventually undergo some kind of massive shift away from beer, but that seems unlikely for now. Nonetheless, there are risks.

Price escalation and gentrification are an emerging problem. As discussed the other day, the growing number of specialty beers sold at exorbitant prices is unprecedented. A few years ago, such beers were rare. Now they're everywhere. There are now lots of spendy beer events and clubs. This trend is largely driven by consumer demand, but it will have a limit. What that limit is no one knows. Yet.

There are also demographic concerns (graphic). Craft beer consumption is strongest in the 26-49 demographic. On either side of that age group, it drops. The 65+ age group is quite weak...not really an issue. But a 5 percent share for the 21-25 age group? Yikes! I doubt that number is accurate in Oregon, but still. I suspect these folks are still figuring out their tastes. Gender (heavy for males) and ethnic (heavy for white) carry additional risks and make you wonder where this is headed. Time will tell.

Well, 2013 is history. Time to move on. Happy New Year!