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Showing posts with label beer biz stats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beer biz stats. Show all posts

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Portland's Craft Beer Market Share Understated

Last week's piece that announced craft beer's emerging control of Portland's beer market drew a firestorm of traffic, a lot of it from reddit.com. I like that. It also drew quite a few 'Hoorahs!" from folks happy to see the news. Alas, the data from which the conclusions were drawn might be considered a crock.


Don't misunderstand. The numbers are accurate as far as they go. It's just that they're wildly incomplete in several ways...which I'll get to. They paint only a sketchy picture of what's actually going on. The blunt reality is that craft beer is almost certainly in a far more dominant position in Portland then last week's piece suggested.

The overriding reason for the disparity is under-sampling retail and complete blindness to draft sales. You will recall that IRI (Information Resources, Inc.) is the market research organization that buys scan data from grocery stores, convenience store chains, etc. Good stuff, as far as it goes.

Packaged beer
Let's first deal with under-sampling in packaged beer. Because the IRI buys data mostly from large grocery stores and chains, it leaves a huge amount of significant data on craft beer (and other stuff) on the table. How can that be?


The answer is that Portland (like a lot of cities) has a large number of independent (mostly small) grocery and convenience stores that aren't part of IRI data collection. Specialty stores like New Seasons and Whole Foods, which sell a lot of craft beer, also aren't included, sources tell me. Bottleshops are in the same boat...not part of the mix, either.

If you look at all the places craft beer is sold around the city in packaged form, you quickly realize the IRI data paints a partial picture at best. Instead of the 45 percent shown in last week's graphic, craft beer likely accounts for around 60 percent of dollars in packaged sales. Keep in mind that's for Portland. The number drops outside the city core, where yellow beer still has some appeal.

Draft beer
Some people commented on the absence of draft data in last week's post. Draft is far more difficult to track than packaged sales for some fairly obvious reasons, and it isn't part of what IRI collects. In fact, no one really knows how much draft beer is sold in Portland. We just know it's a huge number.



After talking to some industry folks, I came to understand the draft figure is much larger than I imagined. Portland's core consumes draft beer like there's no tomorrow. The national average for draft consumption in cities and towns is around 30 percent. A reliable industry source told me Portland's number is 50-60 percent by volume, over 60 percent in dollars. Another source said that number is probably accurate.

One thing I need to mention is that no one seems to know where growlers fit in. This is draft beer sold for consumption off-premise. Brewpubs and beer-centric establishments that fill growlers surely track those sales differently than beer sold for on-site consumption. But we have no exposure to the numbers.

Grocery stores are another matter. More and more stores fill growlers. Yet no one I talked to could tell me how those sales are tracked. I suspect Fred Meyer, which recently joined the growler craze, tracks growler fills alongside packaged beer sales, and passes that data on to IRI. It might be hard to extract growler fill data from packaged sales. So it's a blank page for now.

Reality check
If you look at where craft sales are underreported or not represented in IRI data, you quickly realize craft market share in Portland is significantly higher than the 45 percent shown last week. Craft may have only recently passed the combined packaged sales of Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors in IRI stores, but it has surely dominated the overall picture for several years, at least.


Forming a statistical representation of the Portland beer market is a bit of a guessing game. That's because there's so much missing hard evidence. Nonetheless, looking at the likely scenarios for draft and packaged product, you have to conclude craft owns more than 60 percent of the PDX market in dollars.

So the IRI numbers used in last week's post aren't wrong and they aren't even a crock, really. But they are so woefully incomplete that they present a skewed picture of what's happening. You have to look deeper.

Given all that, we really ought to take another look at Seattle and San Francisco, the top craft markets in the country behind Portland. Both are probably craft-dominant at this point. If you could see data from all sales channels, both likely passed combined AB/MC dollar share a while ago.


Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Craft Surges Ahead of Big Beer $ Market Share in Portland

Portland has been churning along as the nation's leading craft beer market for years. Yet craft always trailed the combined retail dollar market share of Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors. For apparently the first time, that reality has been altered, quite possibly for good.


The basic story is this: With an overall increase of 3.8 share (16.3 percent increase in dollar sales), craft now owns a 45.8 percent dollar share of the Portland market. Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors, down a combined 2.1 share for the quarter, dropped to 40.6 percent share. These are YTD figures for the first quarter of 2014, ending March 31.

These numbers were reported in the Craft Brew News and forwarded to me by an industry source. The Craft Brew News, published weekly, bases much of its reporting on data provided by Information Resources, Inc., a global market research organization headquartered in Chicago. The IRI provides its clients with retail market intelligence and analysis on consumer packaged goods. It collects data from grocery stores, convenience store chains and other retailers. All products are fair game: beer, wine, food items, candy, toothpaste, etc. A mess of data, for sure.


There are some big winners in the report. Boston Beer doubled sales and gained 1.6 share to finish at 3.5. That's not beer, though. The Craft Brew News says BB gains are mostly attributable to Angry Orchard Cider, up 73 percent and 2 share. Portland's cider market is raging. Gains by Boston Beer and Ninkasi, up 25 percent to 3.4 share, allowed both to pass Heineken USA, down 3 percent to 2.8 share.

Some of the crazy gains came among breweries that are building momentum. 10 Barrel's dollar sales were up 131 percent and it gained a full share to finish at 1.8. New Belgium (up 15 percent), Lagunitas (up 10 percent) and Sierra Nevada (flat) together accounted for nearly 5 share of the market. Bridgeport (2.6 share) and Full Sail (2.2 share) held steady.

Then there's Laurelwood  It seems the decision to put six-packs of Workhorse IPA and Free Range Red on store shelves in Portland (and around the Northwest) is paying off in a big way. Laurelwood sales jumped 133 percent and it doubled dollar share from .3 to .6. A full share seems imminent. This surely could not have happened without the six-packs and aggressive marketing efforts.

Of course, you can't have winners without losers. It was a difficult quarter for large suppliers. Anheuser-Busch, MillerCoors, the Craft Brew Alliance, Deschutes, Crown and Pabst lost a combined 3.9 share. The CBA saw sales decline 13 percent and lost 1.4 share to 6.2. Deschutes sales were up .7 percent, but it lost .4 share to 6.1. Significantly, AB and MC lost market share even though combined dollar sales were up 1.5 percent.

What do the numbers mean? First, keep in mind these are retail numbers. If draft numbers were incorporated, craft's position would look even stronger. It seems likely the growth trend will continue and that big beer will lose more share to craft in Portland. San Francisco and Seattle, both mature and rapidly growing craft markets, will likely see craft pass AB/MC share in the next year or so.

Volatility is another issue. If your sales numbers aren't strong, you're likely losing dollar share (see Deschutes). Big beer increased dollar sales mainly via price increases, not volume, and lost share. That may put them in a bind going forward. We'll see. The point is, there is massive pressure from newbies and fast-trackers who want to tap this hyper-competitive market.

If you're looking for a connection between these numbers and last week's OLCC figures, you'll see some parallels. But remember the OLCC tracks beer brewed and sold in Oregon in any form. The data tracked here is strictly for packaged retail sales in Portland without regard for where the product is produced. A big difference.

The takeaway? Hang onto your hat regardless of your position in this crazy market. These are unchartered, wild waters. Nothing is sacred and no one is secure.

Monday, April 2, 2012

Opportunity Drives Craft Expansion in Retail

I have to admit I've been perplexed in recent months. I look at the Oregon beer landscape and I see numerous breweries expanding their operations and planning to distribute in bottles and/or cans. I sometimes wonder if the market can support the kind of additional production involved.

Just in case you haven't heard what's happening, here are a few examples of what I'm talking about:

Amnesia Brewing, which has a home on N. Mississippi, is in the process of building a production facility in Washougal. The new place will triple their annual brewing capacity overnight (from 1,700 to 6,000 barrels), and will also house a pub and tasting room. They plan to bottle and can beer for distribution as soon as practical.

Coalition Brewing, located on SE Ankeny, will formally release its first bottled beers this week. The beers are Two Dogs IPA, King Kitty Red Ale and Roosters Cream Ale. All of these beers are favorites at the pub and will now be available in stores, bottleshops and select bars.

One of the newly available Coalition bottles
Double Mountain Brewing in Hood River is expanding into the space next to its current operation and will include a bottling line. They expect to distribute bottles of their year-round beers (Kölsch, Vaporizer, IRA and Hop Lava) and possibly seasonals at some point. Expect to see these beers in bottleshops and finer grocery stores sometime next summer or early fall.

Alameda Brewing, located on NE Fremont, has opened a production facility in southeast Portland and is expanding its bottle distribution in Oregon and Washington. Their beers have been available at Fred Meyer and other stores for a few years. I suspect they will be even more visible now.

These a just a few examples. Many other breweries are planning to pursue retail distribution. Breweries already in the retail game are doing what they can to improve their brand image. Lompoc, for example, is in the process of refining its labels.

Available by the bottle, possibly by summer
Behind the madness
What's all the madness about? Aren't there enough craft beers available on store shelves? How much shelf space can they grow into? How much of this stuff will the market support?

The answer is that sales of craft beers in US supermarkets increased by 15 percent in 2011, to nearly $1 billion. It was the sixth consecutive year of growth in the retail channel. Craft beer is the fastest growing alcohol/beverage segment in supermarkets.

Convenience stores and drug stores, which saw solid growth in 2011, are tracked separately from supermarkets. Expansion into this channel is expected to be brisk for 2012.

Numbers from the Brewers Association say craft beer reached a 10.8 share of the retail market last year. Please realize, this is a national figure. The share is probably 20-25 percent in Oregon, Washington and California. And closer to zero in places like Mississippi, where craft is struggling due to antiquated beer laws.

As mentioned in my prior post, some of the growth numbers are off the hook. Sales of craft beer in 22 oz bombers grew by 35 percent in 2011. Canned craft beer sales were up 97 percent to 350,000 cases. These numbers show no signs of slowing down or collapsing.
Bomber sales are expanding nicely

With all these numbers staring them in the face, it isn't surprising that brewers are positioning themselves for retail distribution. A large and growing pool of consumers is actively seeking craft beer in stores. Brewers are merely moving to take advantage of the opportunity.

Is there a risk with so many brewers intent on entering the retail space? Sure there is. The flood of new bottles and cans could create too much competition for shelf space, squeezing some brands out. There's also a possibility that too many choices could drive prices down, impacting profit.

But the game is clearly on...and escalating. You have to admit it's fun to watch as craft beers take shelf space away from the large brands. The craft revolution seems to be moving forward unabated.

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Numbers Show Solid Craft Beer Growth for 2011

If you spend any time in stores or pubs, you probably know the craft beer market is healthy and growing steadily. Recent figures from the Colorado-based Brewers Association, the trade association representing small and independent brewers, are eye opening.

There's a lot of information compressed into a short press release. No need to go through all of it here. If you'd like to delve into the detail, be my guest. You'll find it here.

Upfront numbers
One of the trends craft gurus watch is volume share. This is the portion of the overall U.S. beer market occupied by craft beer. Craft's share has been increasing steadily over the last few years. In 2011, it surpassed 5 percent for the first time, eventually hitting 5.68 percent. That's up from 4.97 in 2010. Production volume increased to 11.5 million barrels, a 13.2 percent increase. Not bad.


Perhaps most importantly, craft's volume and share of the market increased at a time when volume as a whole declined...by 1.32 percent. Why is it important? It means craft is in growth mode while large brewers like Anheuser-Busch and MillerCoors are losing market share.

The retail bump
The BA estimates craft retail sales of $8.7 billion in 2011, up 15 percent from 2010. This is a substantial increase, but you have to look at what's happening in stores to see the full picture.

Have you noticed that craft brands are taking up more shelf space in your neighborhood grocery store? It's happening. Craft is the fastest growing beverage segment in supermarkets nationally and it earned 10.8 share for 2011. The number is expected to hit 12 percent in 2012.

Some of the growth is being fueled by the increasing popularity of large format (22 oz) bottles, which generated $44 million in revenue, up 35 percent from 2010. 6-packs still dominate (to the tune of $470 million in 2011 sales), but large format bottles are selling well in grocery stores, bottleshops and smaller stores, which I'll get to shortly.

Craft cans are on a shocking growth trajectory
Another area of big growth is cans. Indeed, canned craft beer is catching on. Can sales generated $11.5 million last year. That's a 35 percent increase over 2010. Sales of large format (16 oz) 4-packs increased by a jaw-dropping 97 percent. Cans, which accounted for just 40,000 cases sold in 2008, reached 358,000 cases in 2011. That is scary growth.

Craft canned sales growth is ominous. Cans are far more convenient than bottles and actually do a better job of preserving beer than bottles. Until recently, cans were the haven of the big boy brands. People headed on an outdoor excursion would settle for lousy beer because convenience was more important. That's no longer true. You can take good beer with you. This is bad news for the biggies.

Finally, retail growth is spreading itself around. Besides supermarkets, craft beer is invading drug and convenience stores. For the first six weeks of 2012, craft beer sales were up 20 percent in drugstores and 25 percent in convenience stores. Supermarkets showed a 10 percent increase. Wow!

Larger picture
If you're in the beer business today, one of the places you don't want to be is working for a large brewer. MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch are desperately trying to come up with new marketing schemes to stem the rising tide of craft beer. And they keep rolling snake eyes.

If you want a comical take on how the big brands operate, read Silver Bullets: A Soldier's Story of How Coors Bombed in the Beer Wars, by Robert Burgess. Burgess, a market research analyst at Coors in the mid-1980s, details how the company botched new product launches and wasted millions of dollars trying to market crappy beer and coolers. Great reading.

A convenience store bomber selection
The typical big boy response to market challenges has been to create shoddy new products and support them with expensive marketing campaigns. It once worked, but no more. You wonder what would happen if they simply decided to make good beer. Not much chance of that happening.

The increasing momentum of craft sales in stores of all kinds is a significant force of change. You don't have to visit a pub to enjoy a good beer. Consumers are demanding craft choices and stores are delivering, thus taking shelf space away from the big boy brands.

Trickle down
The craft theme is extending beyond just stores. Restaurants and other places where people gather to socialize are jumping on the craft bandwagon. They can't afford to stay on the sidelines any longer. It's embarrassing and bad business when customers want something more than macrobrew.

Small restaurants are a good example. When I go into a small restaurant and see an antiquated beer list, I'm amazed. A place I know has bottles only and serves beers that were really popular 10 years ago. The owner is leaving money on the table and annoying customers who want decent beer. He knows it.

Another great example is my athletic club. For years and years, they offered Bud and Bud Light, along with a couple of (typically) Widmer beers. Now they are getting pressure to remove at least one of the Budweiser taps and add a third craft beer...probably a second IPA.

Part of the problem for owners and club managers is they cannot keep up with changes in craft beer. The number of breweries and styles is growing like crazy. Those of us who follow things know it's tough to keep up. My message to business owners: Ask someone who understands your business and knows craft beer for help. You won't be sorry.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Bud Light Platinum: Where Taste and Common Sense Don't Meet

Budweiser has contributed a lot to the marketing extravaganza that is the Super Bowl. Let's face it. The folks at Anheuser-Busch/InBev have a lot of cash to throw at advertising messages and campaigns. Advertising is their lifeblood, and an example of how spending a lot of money can keep consumers buying a flawed product.

Who can forget the marketing genius of the infamous Bud Bowl promotion? It had an eight-year run, 1989-1997. Bottles of beer with football helmets butting heads. Very popular. I always thought the Bud Bowls were first rate idiocy, an affront to the intelligence of football fans.


In spite of their ad budgets and ingenious campaigns, Bud and the other big boy macros have been losing market share. The downturn has been well-documented on this blog and elsewhere. Some big boy brand segments are in free fall, seeing 30-72 percent sales declines between 2006 and 2010. Ye gods!

The one brand segment that keeps them afloat is light beer. Bud Light, Coors Light and Miller Lite don't show up on the list of declining brand segments. Americans continue to suck up light beers, while steering away from old standards like original Budweiser, Miller and Coors.

Of course, some of the loss of big boy market share can be attributed to craft beer. The craft segment is small, but growing, and has essentially chipped away at the middle and top of the macro brands. Budweiser can no longer position Bud and Michelob as premium beers. Consumers are looking elsewhere.

Available now, just in time for the big game!

Anheuser-Busch's response to this reality is to expand their light beer segment, which they have done with Bud Light with Lime, Bud Select and others. These forays have seen limited success. Bud Select was a monumental flop. But onward they come, chasing the days when they dominated the beer market.

And so it is that they have released a new 'light" beer to coincide with the Super Bowl. We will almost certainly see this product advertised during the game. The beer is Bud Light Platinum. It comes is a flashy blue bottle and is nominally a light beer. But at 6% ABV, you wonder how it fits into the "light" category. Hmmmm.

If the marketing gurus at AB think increasing the alcohol content of Bud Light will help them steal back consumers who have switched to craft beer, I think they're chasing their tails. But maybe they are on to something. Perhaps they have additional exciting ideas up their sleeves:
  • Bourbon Barrel-aged Bud Light Platinum
  • Bud Light Platinum in a 750 ml bottle with a wax dipped cap
  • Imperial Bud Light Platinum
  • Cask-conditioned Bud Light Platinum
  • Special release Bud Light Platinum for the Oregon Brewers Festival
Anyway, be sure to watch for the BL Platinum ads during the game. But make sure your Super Bowl party cooler is well-stocked with craft beer.
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Update: Stltoday.com has a nice review of what AB/InBev has in mind with Bud Light Platinum. They essentially say they're going after a "higher end, more sophisticated" consumer. Too bad the packaging and ad campaign are where the money is being spent. Maybe one of these days AB/InBev will invest in making quality beer. Oh, in case you were wondering, we'll be seeing two (apparently) 30-second ads for Bud Light Platinum during the Super Bowl. The cost: $3.5 million each. 

Monday, January 23, 2012

Another Look at Brewery Growth

Some new numbers from the Brewers Association (BA) got me thinking again about brewery growth. I have a couple of earlier posts that investigate these trends. You can read them here and here if you haven't already. Or you can just read on.

One of the things all of us have to keep in mind when looking at these numbers is they are quite fluid. The BA tracks the number of existing and planned breweries every month. As they themselves admit, brewers are far more reliable about reporting when they've opened than when they've closed. Thus, the numbers for 2011 won't be official for several weeks.

The graph below is a visual version of numbers that appeared on the BA website last week (link). It shows the number of existing breweries and the number of planned breweries as of the end of each year. In creating a visual version of the stats, I hoped it would clarify the growth relationship between existing and planned breweries.


First, note that the existing brewery count is approaching 2000 (1,949). Notice, however, that growth is not off the hook. From the end of 2008 to the end of 2011, we added about 450 breweries to the existing column. That's an average of just over 100 a year. Please remember, this is a net number. The BA gets the end-of-year number by subtracting closures from openings.

Now look at how the number of planned breweries keeps creeping up on the number of existing ones. There's a clear trend here. In 2008, planned breweries (207) represented a small fraction of the existing count (1,496). By the end of 2011, the planned number (915) approached half the number of existing breweries (1,949). Wow!

Below is another way of looking at what's going on. It shows the number of planned breweries at the end of each year against the actual increase in total breweries at the end of the following year. For example, there were 207 new breweries in planning at the end of 2008. A year later, we saw a net increase of just 50. And so on.


So even though the number of planned new breweries rises fairly dramatically each year, the actual net increase in existing breweries shows reasonably consistent growth. I'll be interested to see what this graph looks like in a year given the fact that the number of planned breweries continues to nearly double.

What's missing here? Well, it would be nice to know how many places are closing each year. Having that number would help determine the true new brewery count vs. the number planned. Planned brewery numbers fluctuate wildly. It sometimes takes a while for planned breweries to open...and some never open. Do planned breweries ever go from start-up to open in a calendar year? Inquiring minds.

Time to see if the folks at the Brewers Association can help. Until I have more information, I'm going to conclude that planned brewery numbers have only a passing relationship with actual yearly growth.

Monday, October 3, 2011

Planned Brewery Growth, Part 2

Anyone who follows this blog will recall my Sept. 22nd post on planned new breweries. The premise of that post was that the bulk of craft beer brewery growth (craft is the only segment of beer that is growing) is occurring in areas that are currently and historically under-served. Here's a link back to that post, if you haven't read it.

I intended to get back to that topic sooner than this, but events intervened. The original post contained only a general accounting of where the new planned breweries are located. It's worth taking another look at the data, which reveals some interesting things.

First, take a look at map below. This is the baseline, showing areas with high and low concentrations of existing craft breweries. This map isn't the easiest to read, but my re-creation isn't any better. So this is it.


The main points are clear enough: All of the deep South is woefully under-served  There is a lot of population there and not that many breweries. Then you've got the Midwest and Atlantic Coast, including New York and New Jersey. Again, lots of people and not all that many breweries, per million folks

Then you have the flip side of the coin, which is the concentration of craft breweries in the Northwest, Colorado, Wyoming, Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire. Most of these states aren't very populated. Wyoming has less than 600,000 people; Vermont just over 600,000; Montana less than 1 million; Maine,1.3 million. These states look good on the baseline graph because they have a few breweries and not many people. Oregon and Colorado are off the hook because both have populations and many breweries.

Now dial in the map below, which shows where the high and low growth areas are for 2011. A few things jump out:

Texas and Florida, both in the lowest category on the first map, show dramatic growth. Texas is the second largest state by population, Florida is fourth. The high number of planned breweries is good news for deprived beer lovers in these states, although it likely won't change the states' positions much on the first map due to their huge populations.

California, the largest state in population, already has a fair number of breweries (282). The 97 planned breweries there may seem like a lot, but really isn't given the enormous population. I'm going to guess that even with 97 additional breweries, California still won't catch up with Oregon, Montana, Wyoming or Colorado in breweries per million people.

The same holds true for the relatively high growth in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia and Illinois. All of these states have large populations and have been late to join the craft beer revolution. You have to believe demand will support continued growth in these areas for quite a few years.

Finally, you have Colorado, ranked 22nd in population and already possessing a fairly high concentration of breweries. They are set to add 51 more. What? That's right, 51 more. Which seems a little wacky to me. If all those breweries open, Colorado will have 181 according to the numbers. Oregon, with roughly a million fewer people than Colorado, has 112 breweries and 16 planned. I'm not sure what to make of this. It seems crazy. Maybe it's just that Colorado is beer crazy.

Nonetheless, the areas of high growth seem well-positioned. Looking at the map, you would hope to see big growth in the South, the upper Midwest and the Northeast, particularly New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. For the most part, that's exactly what you see. The numbers for Texas and Florida are huge, obscuring to some extent the lack of progress in other southern states.

Clearly, there are some states where the revolution has not caught on. Mississippi, with 2 current breweries, has plans for 3 more; Arkansas, with 4 current breweries, has plans for 4 more; Oklahoma, with 11 current, has plans for 3 more. You can't help thinking some of these states are lagging behind due to wacky alcohol laws leftover from Prohibition and, perhaps, earlier.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Where are the New Planned Breweries? Here's the Answer

A little while ago I was talking about the growth of the craft beer industry and questioning its future health. My concern was based on the number of planned new breweries in mid-2011. The precise number was, at the time, 725. That number has since been revised to 756. That's up from 389 in 2010. Seriously shocking.

Recognizing there are currently 1,740 operating US breweries, the 756 would represent a 43 percent increase. Of course, these numbers are somewhat nebulous. Some of the planned breweries will never open; many won't open in 2011. A planned brewery is just that, until it opens for business.

Nonetheless, I think it is reasonable to be concerned that overly rapid growth could result in market saturation with respect to craft beer, or whatever you want to call quality beer these days. (There is an ongoing discussion about the meaning of "craft" on the Beervana blog. Join in if you dare.)

It occurred to me that the impact of the new planned breweries is really only an issue if they are in areas where there are already a lot of breweries. If there are 100 new breweries coming to Oregon, that probably isn't a good thing. If they are coming to the light blue areas on the chart below, states where there are few craft breweries per million people, that's good news. These areas are woefully under-served.


I couldn't find the data I needed on the web. So I asked the Brewers Association for a little assistance. Frankly speaking, those guys are amazing. It took a week or so, but they came through. The numbers are quite clear and show almost exactly what you would like them to show if you like the idea of growth in under-served areas (the light blue dudes on the chart).

In the chart below, the whole pie represents all 756 planned new breweries. Now look at the legend, which matches a color to areas based on per-capita breweries per million people. The slices show percentages of new planned breweries in each of those areas.

Of the 756 planned breweries, 55 percent (417) are located in the two areas with the lowest per-capita number of breweries. The percentage increases to 63 percent if we look at the three most under-served areas, states with fewer than 10 breweries per million people. I think that's good news.


On the other side of the coin, only 12 percent (92, to be exact) of the new planned breweries are located in the areas with the greatest concentration of existing breweries. Since these are the places where market saturation could be a concern, the concern seems misplaced for now.

I will be pulling some additional interesting, revealing factoids from the Brewers Association data in future posts. Meanwhile, a special thanks to Andy Sparhawk at the Brewers Association, who mined this data.